Will India Budget 2023-2024 Nurture the Enormous Potential of North East Region

Economy of the Indian subcontinent was considered the largest in the world for most of the recorded history until the onset of colonialism in early 19th century. Thereafter, India was looted by the British and was left totally ripped and economically backward till the nation got her independence from British rule in August 1947.According to scholar Angus Maddison, at the start of British colonization of India in the 17th century, India's GDP reportedly, was between 25 and 35 percent of the world's total GDP, which dropped to two percent by the time of independence in 1947.

By 2022, India accounted for 7.2 percent of the global economy in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). Considering the current growth rate, by 2025, India is expected to be the fifth largest economy in the world and hopefully continuing with the bold and farsighted initiatives undertaken by the current Government, India should reach to the third position by 2030. It will be interesting to note that in 2022,just five countries constituted more than half of the world's entire GDP, namely the United States (US), China, Japan, India and Germany. While, according to the World Bank data, the US has the largest economy in the world with $23 trillion, China has the second-largest at $18 trillion and India, the sixth largest, is at little over $3 trillion.

During presentation of the budget 2023-24, India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman very rightly said that "The Indian Economy has continued to be on the right track despite a global slowdown caused by the Covid pandemic followed by the Russia-Ukraine war". Though the Indian economy is considered to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world, it also faces number of challenges such as inflation, unstable rupee, large current account deficit, population growth and inadequate infrastructure which needs to be tackled in the coming years. Interestingly, while spokesperson of few political parties in the opposition is often heard talking on TV about the growing unemployment in the country, but interestingly, atop UN Economist report, quoted in Economic Times of January 2023, has said that ‘among the large economies, the unemployment rate dropped to a four-year low of 6.4 percent in India, as the economy added jobs both in urban and rural areas in 2022 especially post the Covid pandemic'.

BLURB: The British Empire too had realized that the North East region was not only blessed with abundant rich natural resources, but was also a potential major gateway to South East Asia.

Will India be a Rich Country in the Future?

India is growing at a fast rate, but to become the world's largest economy by 2047, India as per some reports, supposedly, needs to grow at almost 14percent every year, assuming its currency remains stable against the US dollar. India has the potential to become a global superpower because the Nation is blessed with abundant rich natural resources, huge crude oil reserves, multiple and easy access to the Indian Ocean region, self-dependent and resilient capable population blessed with intellect, talent and potential skill besides the rich cultural heritage. To turn this great potential into a big economic boost, fortunately, India has a strong farsighted political leader today and a strong selfless dedicated armed forces to protect the territorial integrity of the Nation.

How Will the North Eastern Region of India Contribute?

India's North East is blessed with huge untapped natural resources and is seen as the Eastern gateway of India's Look-East Policy. The British Empire too had realized that the North East region was not only blessed with abundant rich natural resources, but was also a potential major gateway to South East Asia. It was a region that gave an opportunity for enhancing international trade between India and the neighboring countries such as China, Burma as also to the rest of the South East Asian countries. The British had fully entrenched themselves for oil, tea and timbre. But unfortunately, the British Empire benefitted itself only to the hilt and then finally left behind people of North East to starve and fend for themselves post World War II, without any kind of development.

Post-independence, due to the partition of India, the industrial sector in the North East received a big setback as all the trade routes were cut-off with the rest of the country and the entire region saw a big surge in insurgency. Though the main cause behind the insurgency was political, but the feeling of threat of the exploitation of natural resources, which was successfully injected into the minds of the massesin the North East region coupled with the prevailing ambiguity related to economic potential on the part of the Government, only added fuel to the fire. Just to quote few examples of the past three decades, we can recall how insurgent groups resisted the Government's effort of extracting crude oil in Assam between 2005 and 2011, extraction of uranium and coal in Meghalaya in 2007 and the Naga-Kuki conflict in 1992 for taking over control of the Moreh market in Manipur. The Nagas of Nagaland too have been apprehensive ,although, of not only being displaced when the crude oil extraction begins; but also, of the environmental hazards unleashed on their lush jungles, rivers and rice fields. Thus, the region has remained derived of any significant development and the Centre was always blamed both by local political parties and insurgent outfits for being insensitive towards the region.

However, a new dawn started to emerge in 2014 when the approach of the Government changed from ‘Look East' to ‘Act East' policy. This package covers schemes such as development of road and air links, horticulture, rural infrastructure, power sector, border trade, medical and other training institutions besides oil exploration, coal mining, commercial fishing, agriculture and forest products industries. Since 75 percent of the population in the North East is dependent on agriculture, thus, to benefit the larger mass, the Government is determined to give a big push to growth and export of both agricultural and forest products such as potatoes, corn, fruits like berries, tea, jute etc.

The North East region, as an economic powerhouse, holds great potential in the fields of building Carbon Credits having the highest forest coverage, also has high chemical grade limestone reserves of which presently India is a net importer. In the domain of Horticulture, Apiculture and Sericulture, they have the potential of becoming a major producer of honey, wax, spun Eri silk and bamboos.

An insurgency-free stable North East, therefore, will help to turn into reality the long-cherished dream of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to see North East coming up as not only an international horticulture hub; but also, as a major exporting hub taking on major share of the market of the South East Asian countries which is presently largely tilted towards supplies from China. If this dream of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is successfully realized, then the whole of the North East region will turn into a big sought-after prized possession of our motherland India. However, in order to realize such a dream, the nation needs to keep the Northern borders sealed and safe not only from China, but from Myanmar and Bangladesh too besides getting rid of few insurgent groups still prevailing with multiple taxation system in few areas and rampant corruption.

BLURB: The finance minister Nirmala Seetharaman has announced a number of measures ranging from aid to green growth, boosting tourism to skill education which will greatly benefit the North East region.

Highlights of the Budget Pointing Towards the North East.

Does the Budget 2023-24 focus on North East? Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while hailing it as the ‘First Budget of Amrit Kal,' urged all Indians to resolve to make, ‘India prosperous, capable and thriving by 2047.' So, this is where the potential of North East comes in to effectively help India to climb the higher pedestal of Amrit Kal in the times ahead.

The Budget presented by the finance minister Nirmala Seetharaman has provided much higher outlays for the Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region (MDoNER) during the Financial Year 2023-24 with emphasis on enhancing capital expenditure in the North East region ensuring a visible significant impact. The finance minister has announced a number of measures ranging from aid to green growth, boosting tourism to skill education which will greatly benefit the North East region. Re-emphasizing that there has been a sustained focus on Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), Ladakh and the North East, Finance Minister Nirmala Seetharaman reminded the Nation that, "Prime Minister Vajpayee's Government had formed the Ministry of Tribal Affairs and the Department of Development of the North East region to provide the infrastructure to help reach the last mile". This statement, therefore, clearly indicates her resolute focus towards the long-awaited development of the North East region now. The Modi Government has also decided to focus on developing the farm sector through an agriculture accelerator fund for young entrepreneurs. Digital libraries for both children and adolescents will also be set up down to panchayat and ward levels, facilitating availability of quality books across geographies, languages, genres and device-agnostic accessibility, thus greatly benefitting the younger generation of the North East region and help them to connect emotionally with the rest of India.

Federation of Industry & Commerce of North Eastern Region(FINER) has welcomed the allocation of Rs 2491 crore for the North East Special Infrastructure Development Scheme. The scheme provides 100 percent central funding to the state governments of the North East region for projects related to water supply, power, connectivity, tourism, education and health. This is seen as a major relief for the industry and trade sector in the region which was seen as badly neglected since past several decades.

The budget for 2023-24 has also proposed the revival of 50 additional airports, heliports, water aerodromes and advanced landing grounds to improve regional air connectivity. Thus, the North East region, which has challenging terrain, will greatly benefit from the restoration of these airports as it will give a boost to the tourism sector.

FICCI has praised the Government's move to extend agriculture credit worth Rs 20 lakh crore, focusing on sectors such as animal husbandry, dairy and fisheries, as also on initiatives such as the Horticulture Clean Plant Programmer to increase the production of high-value crops. The Government has also planned setting up 157 new nursing colleges in collaboration with 157 medical colleges which will greatly help capitalize on its demographic dividend. Besides these colleges, the budget is also giving boost to bring in quality education in remote areas, development of tourist destinations, mass driven handloom and handicraft sectors.

A significant step has, therefore, been taken to gainfully harness the resources of the North East region for the benefit of not only the common people of the North East region, but also to significantly contribute towards building the strength of the Indian economy at the global forum. Notwithstanding the same, there is also an inescapable need to emotionally connect the people of the North East region with the rest of India through media and culture.

Few Suggested Measures

Building an Emotional Connect with the North East Region

There is the need to improve educational facilities as bulk of young boys and girls from the North East region who venture out to other parts of the country in search of jobs, land up mostly in the service industry. A concerted effort, therefore, needs to be made by the Government to improve the educational facilities and create opportunities for the young boys and girls so that they can enter into other fields of employment also.

Promoting Tourism Through Travel YouTube Channels

Though the Government is looking at further developing air and rail connectivity; but somehow, despite the North East being so scenic and beautiful, it is nowhere on the tourism canvas due to a sense of fear of insecurity still prevailing in the minds of the masses of the rest of the country. Unfortunately, the North East region has become a victim of prevailing fear of insurgency. Very few people actually venture out on tourism to the North East region. Therefore, an effective step that can be taken is to invite the most influential travel channels from all over the world to come and visit the North East region and help in bringing awareness about the tourism potential of the region to the world. The Government could consider funding these trips and conduct the social media influencers around the region. This strategy has been very effectively used by countries such as Brazil and Japan in the recent past which has resulted in more exposure and boost in tourism for their countries.

National Football Mission

The Government may consider starting a concerted national effort to improve the sport of football in the country. India currently stands at 108^th in ranking for world's most popular sport. A nation of 1.4 billion population which is often touted as the sleeping giant of football, must aim to participate and become a force to reckon with in the sport which is played from South America to Africa to Far East Asia. India could set a target for herself of qualifying for the 2034 FIFA World Cup and of getting to the top 50 in the rankings.

Currently,10 out of India's 21 men squad for the tournament hail from North Eastern States of the country. Once the target is set and aim to achieve the same is made clear by the Government as a national goal, the game of football will start to gain greater popularity. Gradually, names of North Eastern footballers such as Moirangthem or Thaunaojam will become household names in whole of India. With the whole of India supporting the national team and cheering the names of footballers from the North East from the stands, the day isn't far when Indians from North Eastern region would begin to enjoy the love and adoration of their compatriots much like how MS Dhoni or Virat Kohli is loved and adored today. This would result in improving the self-image and self-esteem and make the North Eastern Indians feel as a part of the country contributing to its glory at the international stage.

Supporting and promoting football in the country will also help the government in earning goodwill among North Easterners as they hold the sport very dearly to their heart much like how rest of the country loves cricket.

Better Representation in Film and Television

The Government could consider encouraging the film industry also to improve representation of the citizens of North East region in films and the media. This could be if the Film Division of India extends support to those producers who include North East locations in their scripts. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) could help with logistical and equipment support for such productions. There is absolutely no significant representation of actors from the North Eastern region in Bollywood which makes the North Eastern Indian seem invisible in the eyes of the country. The people of North East, when they begin to be seen in the Bollywood movies, will start to get identified and appreciated as an entity which will help in developing a sense of belonging and connect with the rest of country.

BLURB: The recent North East state election results are a clear indication of the gradual shift of trust of the common mass getting closer towards the Centre, having suffered for so many decades of insurgency, loot and corruption.

Moving Forward

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already taken a big initiative to turn the entire North Eastern region into a blessed divine entity. The Cabinet has already approved the PM-DevINE scheme for the remaining four years of the 15th Finance Commission from 2022-23 to2025-26. It is a central sector scheme with 100 percent central funding. This will be implemented by the Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region with an outlay of Rs6,500 crore.

All the measures discussed above will not only significantly enhance the livelihoods of the majority population in the North East region; but also, greatly contribute to adding to the strength of the Indian Economy and taking the nation forward at a higher pedestal on the global scene. This budget will undoubtedly attract business and investment from Southeast Asian countries, including the ASEAN region, giving a significant boost to India's Act East Policy.

The recent North East state election results are a clear indication of the gradual shift of trust of the common mass getting closure towards the Centre, having suffered for so many decades of insurgency, loot and corruption. Various CAG Reports hold testimony to this.

Thus, besides focusing on the development, the Government of India also needs to overcome few other major hurdles such as porous international border with insurgent training camps still active and thriving in the safe heavens provided across the border and continued infiltration and flow of illegal immigrants. A huge number of Chin migrants moving into Mizoram from Myanmar, is an issue which needs to be looked at sooner than later, that is, before it goes out of control. While Paresh Baruah continues to live in Yunnan receiving patronage and funding from China, one must not ignore the ground reality that the armed cadres of the NSCN IM are still intact both within Nagaland and across the border in Myanmar and indulging in multiple taxation and extortion. Prevailing interstate border disputes also needs to be addressed on priority which will also help to instill a sense of belonging and togetherness in the hearts and minds of the locals as one region.

We must remember one crucial fact that the bulk of China's goods and energy commodities like oil, coal and natural gas goes through East and South China Seas and the Indian Ocean Region. Thus, with increased US naval presence in the East and South China Seas as also resumed long-range bomber patrols in the region for the first time after World War II, China is definitely very apprehensive of a possible blockage by US Navy which will lead to threatening China's economy in a big way. The CPEC project in Pakistan has already crumbled.

Therefore, setting own terms India may consider allowing China a shortcut access to Indian Ocean Region through a North East corridor up to Chittagong Port in Bangladesh to export their goods. Transportation of the Chinese goods from the Indian border right up to the Chittagong port be done totally under India's control. This will not only generate huge job opportunities but certainly will also help in finding an equilibrium between the two countries on many key issues affecting both the countries including prevailing situation in Myanmar.

An insurgency-free North East region, sealed borders with neighboring countries, stable Myanmar and a focused developmental approach by the Government of India in close cooperation with respective state governments, will usher in a stable North East. This will help in turning into reality the long-cherished dream of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to see the North East region coming up, as not only an International Horticulture Hub; but also, as a major Exporting Hub taking on the major share of the market of South East Asian countries which is presently largely tilted towards supplies from China. If this dream of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is successfully realized, then the whole of the North East region will turn into a big prized sought-after possession of our motherland India.

Author: - Views expressed are author's personal.

Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (retd), PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM(G), VSM, ADC – is a former Army Commander of South Western, Eastern and Central Army Commands.