TAIWAN:THE NEXT GLOBAL FLASHPOINT

As kids we all were fond of hearing and reading various moral stories. One of the most popular ones was that of two cats fighting over a loaf of bread. A monkey volunteers to help the two cats and suggests them to divide it equally between both of them. The cats express their inability to do so as they don't trust the other regarding the equal division of the bread. The monkey proposes to divide the bread equally for them. The two cats still can't decide which half to take as one always appears a bit bigger than the other. So, the monkey suggests to them that he will eat a bit from the portion looking a bit bigger. This process continues as the cats keep on fighting amongst themselves and eventually the monkey eats the whole bread.  The moral of this story "When two people fight the third one always gets the profit" has a deep relation with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War as the country to benefit the most out of this war is China. Chiu Kuo-cheng, the Defence Minister of Taiwan said on 06 October 2021 that China will invade Taiwan by 2025. This statement if proven true, could be the next global flashpoint. Taiwan which is officially known as the Republic of China (ROC) is a country located in East Asia which has 168 islands and a combined area of 36,193 square kilometres. The main island of Taiwan which was formerly known as Formosa has an area of 35,808 square kilometres. Taipei is the capital city and the country has a population of 2.36 crores. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) commonly known as China with its capital in Beijing and an area of 9.6 million square kilometres and a population of 140.21 crores, has a long history of differences and disputes with Taiwan. In 1863 Taiwan was annexed by the Qing Dynasty of China who ceded it to the Empire of Japan in 1895. ROC took control of Taiwan after the surrender of Japan in World War II IN 1945. In 1945 ROC comprised both the mainland China and Taiwan and its adjoining islands. However, the second phase of the Chinese Civil War which lasted from 10 August 1945 to 07 December 1949, saw ROC led by the nationalist party Kuomintang losing mainland China to the armed forces of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 1949. After its defeat Kuomintang fled to the neighbouring Taiwan. Since then, ROC comprises of 168 islands including Taiwan. In 1971 UN voted to recognise PRC thus brushing aside ROC's claim of being the sole legitimate representative of China. Out of 193 member nations of the UN. ROC has diplomatic relations with only 13 countries. Effectively PRC has eliminated ROC from having normal international relations with most of the countries in the world as PRC harbours an ambition of a unified China comprising PRC and ROC and it does all it can to globally isolate ROC. It is indeed ironical that though ROC was one of the founding members of the United Nations, now it has neither the official membership nor the observer status in the UN. And also intriguing is that USA in pursuance of its "One China Policy" recognises PRC and has no official diplomatic relations with ROC but with the enacting of the Taiwan Travel Act on 16 March 2018 by the US Congress, the relations between ROC and USA have reached a new zenith, even as USA and Taiwan have a long standing business and military relationship. The Chinese President Xi Jinping has remarked that the reunification with Taiwan must be done. And use of the armed forces in achieving this stated aim is not ruled out. 2021 saw a record number of incursions in the Taiwanese airspace by the fighter jets of the Chinese Air Force. The Chinese armed forces are 20.35 lakhs strong and Taiwan has a 1.63 lakh strong armed forces. Clearly the miniscule Taiwanese armed forces are eclipsed by the enormous Chinese armed forces which are superior to it both by number and in equipment too. Adding to the woes of Taiwan is the fact that China has 350 operational nuclear warheads whereas Taiwan has none. With 3 out of the top 10 arms manufacturing firms located in China and it being the world's manufacturing hub, China has developed itself strong both economically and militarily. Though China is not a super power like USA and Russia are but the fact that it is strong both economically and militarily, puts China in the same league as the two super powers. With the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War and the inability of USA and NATO to physically help Ukraine by sending their armed forces, any such adventure by China in Taiwan too would see neither USA or the NATO coming to the aid of Taiwan. The Russia-Ukraine War has proved that when an economically and a militarily strong country with a nuclear arsenal like Russia invades any country, no allies and alliances work and every country has to finally fend for itself. Since the end of World War II, the world has seen two flashpoints wherein the nuclear weapons have been actively deployed. The first was during the Cuban

Missile Crisis of 1962 and the second time is during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War. The next global flashpoint would be Taiwan. Having seen enough death and destruction in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, the quote of Thich Nhat Hanh "Every breath we take, every step we make, can be filled with peace, joy and serenity" should guide the world at large in taking all possible steps to avoid the next global flashpoint. Images Credit- BBC

About the Writer – Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd) The writer who retired from the Corps of Engineers of the Indian Army is an alumnus of NDA, Khadakwasla and IIT Kanpur. He is a M.Tech in Structures has also done MBA and LLB and is a prolific writer and a public speaker. He tweets at @JassiSodhi24. The views expressed are personal.