The Price of Putin’s Obsession: Global Consequences of Russia's War

Vladimir Putin’s 25-year grip on Russia has been marked by promises unfulfilled, wars waged, and a global order destabilized. When Putin first sought the presidency in 2000, he published a manifesto addressed to the Russian people, claiming that if he had to choose a campaign slogan, it would simply be "a decent life." A quarter of a century later, the question of whether Russians have ever received this promised life remains hauntingly relevant — and the answer, by most accounts, is no. Instead of prosperity, dignity, and stability, what much of Russia has received is an increasingly authoritarian regime, economic hardship, military conflict, and social repression. The cost of Putin’s ambitions is being paid not only by ordinary Russians but by the wider world, with far-reaching consequences that extend far beyond the borders of Russia, especially into fragile economies in South Asia.

The Russia Putin promised has become a state imprisoned by its own leader's obsessions. The 2014 annexation of Crimea, the 2008 invasion of Georgia, and the ongoing, brutal war against Ukraine are all evidence of his relentless quest to restore a version of imperial Russia. The Russkiy Mir, or "Russian World," which he imagines as a sphere of influence binding former Soviet territories under Moscow’s authority, has left a bloody trail across Eastern Europe. What was supposed to be a swift three-day war in Ukraine has dragged on for over three years, leaving tens of thousands of soldiers dead, civilian infrastructure decimated, and Russia’s economy battered by sanctions and isolation. Civil liberties have been crushed, with over 20,000 people detained for protesting the war, media independence eliminated, and critics either imprisoned, exiled, or killed. Figures such as Boris Nemtsov, Anna Politkovskaya, and Alexei Navalny — brave voices against tyranny — have been silenced forever.

Despite Putin’s portrayal of himself as an invincible strongman, his leadership has repeatedly faltered in moments of real crisis. From the disastrous Kursk submarine tragedy in 2000, where 118 sailors died as Putin rejected international help, to the mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2023 armed mutiny by Wagner Group leader Evgeniy Prigozhin, the Russian President has shown a pattern of denial and detachment. He shies away from public accountability, avoids transparency, and places the interests of the regime above the safety and welfare of the people. Yet through a mix of propaganda, fear, and suppression, he has managed to cling to power, securing election victories in a political system rigged to his favor.

The world has paid a heavy price for Putin’s obstinacy. The war in Ukraine alone has destabilized global food and energy markets. Ukraine, a major grain exporter, has seen its agricultural capacity devastated, leading to surges in food prices worldwide. Oil and gas disruptions caused by European sanctions on Russia and retaliatory measures from Moscow have sent energy prices spiraling, disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income countries, particularly in South Asia. Nations like India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka — highly dependent on affordable food and fuel imports — have faced inflationary shocks that threaten livelihoods and national economies.

According to economic commentator Usha Sunil, "The ripple effect of Russia’s aggression is deeply felt in the subcontinent. From rising wheat prices in Indian markets to fuel shortages in Sri Lanka, Putin’s war has contributed directly to worsening the economic instability of the region." Sanctions have forced Russia to seek new trade partners, offering discounted oil to countries like India and China. While it has offered short-term economic relief for these importers, it has also pulled them into geopolitical tensions and moral dilemmas, balancing economic interests with growing Western pressure.

Moreover, the war has accelerated the global arms race. NATO nations have ramped up defense spending while China has grown closer to Russia, exploiting the situation to counterbalance American and European influence in Asia. The U.S. and European powers have begun recalibrating military alliances, increasing their engagement in South Asia through arms deals, defense pacts, and infrastructure investments, in part to contain growing Russian and Chinese influence. This has made the region a geopolitical hotspot, increasing the risk of conflict while diverting attention and resources away from pressing humanitarian and developmental issues.

Within Russia’s supposed sphere of influence, Putin’s grip is weakening. Belarus remains his most loyal ally, but only through repression and economic dependence. Other former Soviet states are distancing themselves from Moscow’s orbit. Ukraine’s resistance has not only repelled Russia’s advance but inspired movements in places like Moldova and Georgia to pursue closer ties with the European Union. Even traditionally Russia-leaning countries such as Armenia are reconsidering their allegiances, frustrated by Russia’s inability to guarantee security in conflicts like the recent Nagorno-Karabakh crisis.

At home, Russia faces a demographic crisis. Young, educated Russians have fled the country in waves, fearing conscription, economic stagnation, and political oppression. The population is aging rapidly, birth rates have plummeted, and inflation eats away at household incomes. Consumer goods are scarce, foreign brands have withdrawn, and despite claims of economic resilience, the Kremlin is struggling to replace lost markets and technology access. The so-called “decent life” has become an illusion for most, replaced by survival under a decaying authoritarian state.

Political analyst Mikhail Zygar notes, "What we are witnessing is a classic example of empire overreach — where internal decay is masked by aggressive external wars." He argues that Putin’s refusal to modernize Russia politically and economically has left the nation isolated, forcing it to seek refuge in nostalgia and militarism, with devastating costs for its people.

Meanwhile, ordinary Russians remain trapped in a system that demands loyalty without offering security. The social contract — silent acceptance in exchange for stability and modest prosperity — has collapsed. Censorship, surveillance, and fear rule the streets, while inflation and war dead return home in coffins. The Russian people, whether by design or by force, are largely excluded from the decision-making that has plunged them into international pariah status.

In South Asia, the effects are just as visible, though differently felt. The economic vulnerabilities exposed by the Ukraine war have highlighted the region’s over-dependence on global supply chains and foreign energy imports. It has forced governments to rethink their economic policies, invest more in local agriculture and renewable energy, and reevaluate trade dependencies. But it has also made them more susceptible to geopolitical bargaining, as they navigate relationships with both the West and Russia-China axes in a polarized world order.

The world, racing through a climate crisis, pandemic aftershocks, and digital disruptions, can scarcely afford such destabilization. Yet Putin’s actions have created a cascade of instability that risks new conflicts, humanitarian disasters, and economic breakdowns. What began as a war to reclaim influence has become a global affliction — trashing livelihoods, triggering inflation, stoking arms races, and undermining the fragile balance of international order. Putin’s promise of a "decent life" has proven to be a cruel irony, not just for Russians but for millions whose fates are now intertwined with the consequences of his unrelenting, destructive ambition.