Failed predictions, lost credibility: Why Indian pollsters should step back

New Delhi, Nov 18 Veteran Iowa pollster J Ann Selzer made headlines with her decision to step away from election predictions. She is doing so after a successful career spanning nearly three decades. Now she has expressed disappointment over her failure to predict the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential elections. She wrongly predicted Iowa’s strong shift toward Vice President Kamala Harris. Finally, Donald Trump won the state and presidential race by a landslide, and the Democrats were left in disarray.

In a statement released Sunday, Selzer made it clear that she was moving on to "other ventures and opportunities" as she bid farewell to the field of election polling, acknowledging the increasing difficulty of predicting election outcomes in today’s shifting political landscape. Her action does have a subtle message for those in the same business in India as well. They are facing similar challenges in poll forecasts as Selzer did.

Her exit has brought the spotlight to the practice of opinion and exit poll surveys in India, where agencies have also struggled with inaccurate predictions in several elections. For several years together, the pollsters in India have drawn flak for their wrong projection in various Lok Sabha and assembly elections, with their exit and opinion polls often going awry. The question now being asked is whether Indian survey agencies should follow in Selzer’s footsteps and move away from the increasingly uncertain and controversial profession.

Selzer’s statement has triggered a broader debate about the reliability of surveys, particularly in the face of consistent failures. She wrote, “My integrity means a lot to me. To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade.”

Needless to say, the failure to accurately predict electoral outcomes, especially in an age of shifting voter behaviour and volatile political spheres, has raised serious concerns about the credibility of polling in India. In her departure note, Selzer laid emphasis on the difficulties faced by pollsters, acknowledging how recent elections have highlighted the complexities of trying to forecast voter preferences with any degree of certainty.

The debate in India over any possibility of exit polls being exact polls has been going on for several years together. Opinion as well as Exit Polls has often proven to be inaccurate leading to the debate centring on whether the practice should be stopped now. Remarkable instances of polling failures include the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the 2023 Chhattisgarh elections, the 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections, the 2015 Bihar elections, and the 2015 Delhi elections. Most recently, Haryana's election results have once again defied the predictions of exit polls, further raising doubts about the reliability of such surveys.

Election results have shown that pollsters are frequently off the mark, with the actual outcomes differing sharply from the predictions. In some cases, the differences have been so stark that they have called into question the integrity and competence of the agencies involved. The growing doubt over exit polls has led many to wonder whether these surveys are losing their relevance or if the very nature of polling needs to be re-evaluated.

The failure of exit polls has often been attributed to pollsters getting carried away by the "noise" of the election campaign in India. They relied too heavily on public sentiment without paying enough attention to the silent, less vocal segments of the electorate.

Many observers argue that pollsters fail to accurately assess the so-called "silent voters" — individuals who may not openly express their opinions but ultimately have a significant impact on the final results. This oversight is one of the reasons why outcomes often defy expectations and leave pollsters scrambling to explain their miscalculations.

Despite these setbacks, pollsters in India might be ready with upcoming forecasts, including for Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and several by-polls held this month. However, with a history of inaccurate predictions in mind, it is clear that the public and political analysts alike are growing increasingly cautious about the validity of these surveys.

As with Selzer’s farewell to this industry in the U.S., there is a growing sense that polling agencies in India need to either reassess their methodologies and approach or think better about what they are doing.

The growing number of instances where predictions have gone wrong has left many questioning whether it is time for the agencies to consider winding up the business. As Selzer's departure demonstrates, the challenges of accurately predicting electoral outcomes have never been greater.

Source: IANS