Decline in domestic migration in India: 12% reduction recorded between 2011 and 2023
The migration of talent and workforce from India to foreign countries is declining rapidly due to the improvement in the economy. The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Committee report has estimated the number of domestic migrants to decline by about 12% between 2011 and 2023. The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Committee report has said that the number of domestic migrants is estimated to decline to 40.20 crores between 2011 and 2023. The decline in the number of Indian migrants indicates increased economic opportunities across the country.
According to the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (EAC-PM) report, the number of domestic migrants in 2023 will be 40,20,90,396, which is 11.78% less than the figures recorded in the 2011 census. The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Committee has released a report titled '400 million Dreams! A report titled 'Examining Volume and Directions of Domestic Migration in India Using Novel High-Frequency Data' has been released, which states that the total number of migrants as per the 2011 census was 45,57,87,621.
The report states, "Total domestic migration in India is slowing down. We estimate that by 2023, the total number of migrants in the country will be 40,20,90,396. This is about 11.78% less than the number of migrants (45,57,87,621) as per Census 2011." The report states that the migration rate was 37.64% of the total population as per the 2011 census. Now it is estimated that it has reduced to 28.88%.
The research report, authored by former EAC-PM chairperson Bibek Debroy, said, "We estimate that this is due to the availability of better services such as education, health, infrastructure and connectivity, as well as better economic opportunities in or near the major sources of migration. This is indicative of overall economic development." The research paper used three high-frequency and detailed data sets. These include Indian Railways unreserved ticketing system (UTS) data on passenger numbers, roaming data of mobile telephone users from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) and district-level banking data to understand the potential impact of migration on places of origin.
The research report said that the top origin districts are located around major urban agglomerations such as Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata etc. It said that this is not only consistent with the migration model, but perhaps also a tentative confirmation of earlier assumptions. This means that short-distance migration has the largest share of migrants and distance has a negative impact on labour flow.
The report also said that there has been a change in the structure of the top five states attracting the maximum number of migrants (inter-state migration). Among short-distance destinations for inter-state migration, West Bengal and Rajasthan are the top states making new entries, while Andhra Pradesh and Bihar are now one place lower. The report states that West Bengal, Rajasthan and Karnataka are the states where the maximum increase in the percentage share of incoming travellers has been seen, while Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh are the states where the percentage share of total migrants has decreased.
The report said, “The maximum migration from Valsad, Chittoor, West Bardhaman, Agra, Guntur, Villupuram and Saharsa goes to districts like Mumbai, Bengaluru Urban, Howrah, Central Delhi, Hyderabad etc.” According to this report, at the state level, Uttar Pradesh-Delhi, Gujarat-Maharashtra, Telangana-Andhra Pradesh and Bihar-Delhi are the top pairs of states from where people migrate. Uttar Pradesh-Delhi means that people from Uttar Pradesh are migrating to Delhi.
The report says, "At the district level, Murshidabad-Kolkata, West Bardhaman-Howrah, Valsad-Mumbai, Chittoor-Bengaluru Urban and Surat-Mumbai are the most popular routes for migration between districts." It also says that this has an impact on town planning as well as planning of transport network.
Using TRAI's mobile phone roaming data, the report says that the maximum number of people migrate in the months of April-June, while this figure decreases in November-December. The report said that the second highest travel during winter time is probably an indication of travel during festival and wedding season. January appears to be the month with the lowest travel.
According to the 2011 census, only five states Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal contribute to about 48% of the total migration, which also includes migrants from within the state. The number of migrants coming from five states Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu is about 48%. This also includes migrants from within the state.
The report says that the compound annual growth rate of the number of migrants was 2.7% from 1991 to 2001. It increased to 3.7% from 2001 to 2011. Interestingly, between 1991 and 2001, India's workforce grew from 31.7 million to 40.2 million (an annual average growth of 2.6%), while from 2001 to 2011, the workforce grew from 40.2 million to 48.2 million (an annual average growth of 1.99%).