Economic Decline Fuels Unrest in Punjab: A Historical Perspective by Colonel Harisimran Singh

The recent farmer protests at Shambu Border highlight a deeper, long-standing issue in Punjab - the economic distress that has been a powerful catalyst for disaffection among various groups in the state. This unrest has its roots in the complex history of Punjab, stretching from the Green Revolution to the present day.

While the Green Revolution brought initial prosperity to rural Punjab, it also exacerbated inequalities among the Jat-Sikhs, the predominant landowning community. The introduction of mechanized agricultural techniques led to an uneven distribution of wealth, creating a stark divide between large landowners and small, marginal farmers.

Once ranked first in GDP per capita among Indian states in 1981, Punjab has experienced a significant economic downturn:

- By 2001, Punjab had slipped to the fourth rank in GDP per capita

- Currently, it has the second-slowest GDP per capita growth rate among all Indian states and UTs

- The state's economy now ranks 16th, with its per capita GDP at 19th place

This economic decline has been accompanied by rising unemployment, particularly among educated youth. The lack of industrial development, partly due to the government's reluctance to set up heavy industries in a border state, has further exacerbated the problem.

The combination of economic distress, unemployment, and historical grievances has created a fertile ground for unrest:

1. Unemployed youth are increasingly drawn to numerous *deras* in the Punjab hinterland

2. These semi-literate, impoverished young men are susceptible to radicalization

3. The rise of figures like Bhindranwale, who epitomized the '*hakkan di larai*' (fight for rights), has further fueled separatist sentiments

The state's history of militancy in the 1980s, including Operation Blue Star, has left deep scars on the Punjabi psyche. As noted by Ramesh Inder Singh, former Deputy Commissioner of Amritsar, "About 30,000 people died in a decade of violence. The state slipped from the number one position to below 15th among states on most of the socio-economic parameters."

1. The rising number of sacrilege-related incidents has pushed the police into a fear psychosis

2. The emergence of new political forces, such as the partisan Akali Dal proposed by newly elected MP Sarabjit Singh, raises concerns about potential radicalization

3. The possibility of a Mann-Amrit Pal-Sarabjit triumvirate becoming a rallying point for radicals

As Punjab grapples with these complex issues, the question remains: Can the state address its economic challenges and historical grievances without sliding back into a cycle of violence and unrest?