ULFA(I) changes modus operandi

Recent warnings issued by the NSCN-K(YA) against coal and oil companies for evicting Naga and other tribal villagers in the Ledo area of Tinsukia and the Changlang district of Arunachal Pradesh raise several important questions.

The newly leased Kharsang and Namchik coal mine areas have been awarded to a Jharkhand-based company. On 14 September 2024, the Chief Minister of Assam made a casual appeal to the ULFA(I), urging them to refrain from military activities in Assam, although he left the door open for them to pursue political activities. The underlying message was loud and clear—ULFA(I) has effectively lost its battleground in Assam.

While ULFA(I) has continued low-profile military operations, such as the kidnapping of two individuals from the Jagun area, it has deliberately refrained from claiming responsibility. This is likely a strategic move to avoid provoking a strong counter-offensive.

There is a signed agreement between ULFA(I) and NSCN-K(YA) concerning rules of engagement in military operations, including shelter, training, safe passage, and other protocols. Both groups have so far maintained diplomatic adherence to these ground rules.

However, the recent notice issued by the NSCN-K(YA), circulated through local media, raises critical questions: Has the NSCN-K(YA) violated the agreed-upon ground rules by interfering in what may be considered ULFA(I)’s jurisdiction? Or is this a calculated move to deflect attention and prevent a counter-offensive against ULFA(I)?

Could this notice instead be a pressure tactic aimed at negotiating financial deals with coal and oil companies?