Murder, Mystery, and Diplomatic Showdowns: Has India-Canada Tension Crossed the threshold?

Diplomatic crisis between two states can be expected, but when the rupture is between two democracies with deep historical, economic, and cultural ties, it becomes a case study in diplomatic mishandling. The ongoing fallout between India and Canada, triggered by the assassination of pro-Khalistan figure Hardeep Nijjar in June 2023, reveals the reckless and tactless approach of the Trudeau government in handling a volatile and complex situation.

To understand the magnitude of the diplomatic fallout, we must first grasp the violent and bloody history of the Khalistan movement. It emerged in the 1980s, demanding a separate Sikh homeland in India. The movement quickly escalated into a series of violent attacks and extremist activities, culminating in the assassination of Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in 1984 by her Sikh bodyguards. The aftermath saw a severe crackdown on Khalistanis in India, but many of the movement’s supporters fled abroad, settling in places like Canada, where they found a more hospitable environment for their cause.

India, for decades, has been deeply wary of the Khalistan movement’s resurgence, particularly in countries like Canada, where pro-Khalistan groups have remained politically active. India has made repeated and clear requests for Canada to crack down on these groups, yet the Trudeau government has failed to act meaningfully. This perceived inaction has been a sore point for India, and it finally boiled over in September 2023 when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a public accusation against India, alleging that Indian government agents were involved in Nijjar’s assassination.

Let’s be clear: Trudeau’s accusation was reckless. To publicly accuse a sovereign nation of carrying out an assassination on foreign soil without presenting any concrete evidence is diplomatically naive at best and deeply irresponsible at worst. Canada, a G7 nation, should know better than to make such bold claims without a solid foundation of proof. Trudeau’s statement did not just set off a diplomatic firestorm; it also signaled that Canada was not taking the broader implications of its actions seriously.

India’s response was swift and predictable. It vehemently denied the claims and expressed outrage at what it saw as a baseless smear on its international reputation. Diplomatic relations, already strained, plummeted further as both countries expelled each other’s diplomats. But Canada didn’t stop there. In 2024, it escalated the situation further, alleging that Indian diplomats were involved in attacks on Khalistani figures in Canada and, even more outrageously, accusing Indian intelligence officials of working with gangster Lawrence Bishnoi to carry out these attacks. These were wild claims, made even more egregious by Canada’s failure to provide tangible evidence to back them up.

Canada has not only jeopardized its relationship with India but also shown an alarming disregard for diplomatic norms. Its accusations, particularly those targeting high-ranking Indian politicians like Home Minister Amit Shah, are inflammatory and lack substantiation. In any normal diplomatic context, these claims would be dealt with quietly behind closed doors, with evidence exchanged and investigations conducted. But Trudeau has opted to take this dispute into the public eye, dragging India’s name through the mud in a way that suggests a lack of understanding—or perhaps a deliberate disregard—of the consequences.

India’s decision to withdraw several diplomats and scale back its representation in Canada speaks to the gravity of the situation. When a country feels its diplomats are unsafe, it is no small matter. By refusing to address India’s concerns about the safety of its diplomats and by allowing pro-Khalistan groups to continue operating with relative impunity, Canada has effectively forced India into a corner. This is not just a temporary spat but a rupture that will have long-lasting consequences for bilateral relations.

The prospect of Canada imposing sanctions on India, a nation of 1.4 billion people and the world’s largest democracy, is laughable. It shows a deep misunderstanding of the geopolitical reality. Canada may be a G7 nation, but India is a global power with influence far beyond its borders. Trudeau’s government is playing with fire, risking not only its relationship with India but also the livelihoods of millions of people, including the significant Indian diaspora in Canada.

The roots of this diplomatic disaster can be traced back to Trudeau’s failure to build on the strong India-Canada relationship he inherited in 2015. Under former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Canada made significant strides in strengthening ties with India. Harper initiated talks on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), signed a nuclear agreement, and made 2011 the “Year of India” in Canada. But under Trudeau, this momentum stalled. His focus shifted to China, and India was seemingly put on the backburner. FTA talks slowed, and by the time Trudeau made his controversial visit to India in 2018, the relationship was already showing signs of strain.

The 2018 visit, which saw convicted Khalistani terrorist Jaspal Atwal invited to a diplomatic event, was a disaster for Trudeau. Although the invitation was quickly rescinded, the damage was done. It highlighted the influence of pro-Khalistan factions in Canadian politics and signaled to India that Canada was not taking its concerns seriously. Since then, relations have only worsened, with Trudeau’s public comments on India’s internal matters, such as the 2020 farmer protests, further inflaming tensions.

To make matters worse, Trudeau’s coalition with Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party (NDP) has exacerbated India’s concerns. Singh is a vocal supporter of the Khalistan movement and has often criticized India’s handling of Sikh issues. His presence in Trudeau’s governing coalition sends a clear signal to India that pro-Khalistan voices have significant influence in Canadian politics. This has only deepened India’s distrust of Trudeau’s government.

Canada’s failure to act on pro-Khalistan extremism has now come to a head. India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has repeatedly accused Canada of pandering to pro-Khalistan groups for political gain, a charge that seems all the more credible in light of the current crisis. Canada’s reluctance to extradite Khalistani criminals, despite 26 formal requests from India, speaks volumes about its priorities. By allowing pro-Khalistan groups to operate freely on its soil, Canada has jeopardized its relationship with one of its most important international partners.

The fallout from this crisis will not be easily mended. Trade talks have ground to a halt, and the future of millions of Indian immigrants in Canada is uncertain. This is not just a diplomatic spat—it is a full-blown rupture that will take years, if not decades, to repair. Canada’s government has shown itself to be shockingly tactless in its handling of this situation. It is one thing to have differences with a foreign power; it is another to publicly accuse them of assassination without credible evidence. Trudeau’s government has made a fundamental error in judgment, and it is Canada’s citizens who will ultimately pay the price.