Concerns rise over delimitation in South Indian states including Tamil Nadu; what is the reason?

The nationwide delimitation process is likely to begin next year, which may change or reduce the number of Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu and other states of South India. The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu has started protesting over this potential loss. However, Union Home Minister Amit Shah has assured the South Indian states that the Lok Sabha seats of any state will not be reduced in the delimitation to be done based on the census to be held after 2026. He clarified that even if the population is less, the Lok Sabha seats of South Indian states will also be increased in proportion to the North Indian states. Despite this, concerns remain about delimitation in South India.

After the apprehension of reduction in seats of Tamil Nadu on delimitation, Chief Minister MK Stalin has called an all-party meeting on Tuesday next week. Stalin's party DMK feels that Tamil Nadu's seats in Lok Sabha will be reduced due to its success in population control. It feels that in North India, where the population has grown rapidly, there will be a huge increase in Lok Sabha seats. This will weaken the voice of South India including Tamil Nadu in the Lok Sabha.

States of South India including Tamil Nadu are worried due to their low population rate. They fear that if the government conducts delimitation based on population, then they may have to suffer a loss of seats compared to the states of North India. The census growth in South India is less than that of North India. Keeping this in mind, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin tweeted on February 25. In this, he wrote “Delimitation isn’t just about Tamil Nadu—it affects all of South India. A democratic process should not penalise states that have successfully managed population growth, led in development, and made significant contributions to national progress. We need a fair, transparent, and equitable approach that upholds true federalism.”

The government has not yet taken any step towards delimitation. Even after this, the states of South India are already expressing apprehensions of reduction in seats. However, Union Home Minister Amit Shah has tried to reassure them by saying that the seats of any state will not be reduced due to delimitation. He has said that despite the low population, the Lok Sabha seats in the states of South India will also be increased in proportion to the states of North India in the delimitation. Shah is reassuring the states of South India. But PM Narendra Modi has expressed a different concern. PM Modi had said in a rally held in Telangana on October 3, 2023 that the states of South India may lose 100 Lok Sabha seats. He said this while attacking the Congress' slogan 'Jitni Aabadi, Utna Haq'. Congress is saying this in support of the caste census. PM Modi had described the Congress as anti-minority and anti-states of South India.

India's population is estimated to be 1.41 billion by 2026. In such a situation, if the government adopts the formula of population ratio per seat and increases the population ratio from 10.1 lahks to 20 lakhs, then there will be more than 750 seats in the Lok Sabha. Tamil Nadu can gain two seats on this formula. But this formula may cause a loss of one seat to Kerala in South India. Kerala currently has 20 Lok Sabha seats, which may decrease to 19 after delimitation. Karnataka may benefit the most from this in South India. Karnataka currently has 28 Lok Sabha seats. After delimitation, the number of Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka may increase to 36.

At present, the South Indian states of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have a total of 129 seats in the Lok Sabha. The representation of South India in the 543 seats of the Lok Sabha is about 24 percent. On the other hand, if the formula of 20 lakh population per seat is adopted, then the South Indian states will have 144 seats in the 750-member Lok Sabha. This will be about 19 percent. Whereas the representation of South India in the current Lok Sabha is about 24 percent. In this way, the representation of South India will fall by five percent. On the contrary, the highest increase can be seen in Uttar Pradesh. The number of Lok Sabha seats there can increase from 80 to 128. Uttar Pradesh still has the highest number of 80 Lok Sabha seats. On the other hand, the number of Lok Sabha seats in Bihar may increase from 40 to 70. Similarly, the number of seats in Madhya Pradesh may increase from 29 to 47. The number of Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra may increase from 25 to 44. The decreasing representation of South India in the Lok Sabha is the main reason for concern for Tamil Nadu and other states of South India. This is the reason why Stalin's statement has been supported by leaders of states like Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Karnataka.

Nowadays, South Indian states including Tamil Nadu are cautious about this issue and are demanding a fair and balanced delimitation. It will be interesting to see what decision the government takes on this issue and whether there is really any reduction in the representation of South India after delimitation or not.