AFTER UKRAINE, WHAT’S NEXT ON THE RADAR OF RUSSIA

With Kherson falling to the Russian armed forces on 05 March 2022, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War is now entering a decisive phase. It is a matter of time before the other cities of Ukraine too fall to the Russians. This war too shall end like all other wars seen in the world's history. No war in the world has gone on indefinitely. There are two main reasons for any war to end. One is that finances are required to fight a war and no country has unlimited finances. And secondly, the troops fighting a war get worn out due to battle fatigue as combat action is extremely stressful and strenuous. The world order will change tremendously after the end of the Russia-Ukraine War. The dominance of USA in the world affairs will tremendously decrease as a clear message has gone to the world this time that in case of any eventuality USA will not send its troops to their aid as it has not done in Ukraine this time despite the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy making fervent appeals for military help and assistance. The solitary and the strongest military alliance in the world, the NATO watched from the side gallery as to how death and destruction has been unleashed by Russia in Ukraine since 24 February 2022 as they themselves are to be blamed for the mess that Ukraine finds itself in. With a strong and a stern warning given by the Russian President Vladimir Putin on the day the Russians invaded Ukraine, no country in the world has dared put its military boots on the Ukrainian soil. Post the Russia-Ukraine War, Russia's focus will shift to Georgia and Moldova as these countries too are aspiring members of NATO and like Ukraine, they both threaten the security of Russia at its doorstep. Georgia with its capital at Tbilisi has a population of 37 lakhs as in 2020. It has an area of 69,700 square kilometres and shares a common border of 900 kilometres with Russia on its north and its east. Moldova does not share a common border with Russia and is a landlocked country with Ukraine on its north, east and south and Romania on its west and has a 1200 kilometre border with Ukraine. The capital of Moldova is Chisinau and has an area of 33,843 square kilometres and a population of 25 lakhs as in 2021. Even though Georgia and Moldova are small countries both in area and population in comparison with Russia but the fact that their aspirations for the NATO membership puts them in the same league as Ukraine as regards the threat to Russia is concerned. Despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, NATO has not given the membership to Ukraine in spite of repeated requests by Ukraine since 24 February 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine War started. Having got a bloody nose by the offensive launched by Russia in Ukraine in its quest to get the NATO membership, the leadership of Georgia and Moldova will have second thoughts of joining the NATO and vice versa. And the failure of NATO to help Ukraine when Ukraine needed them the most, the world at large now knows that each country has to now fend for itself. No allies or alliances can be trusted any more. Every move of Georgia and Moldova will now be keenly watched by Russia. The leadership of these two countries have to now decide what is important for them – peace and prosperity or conflicts and clashes. Though Georgia and Moldova applied for the European Union (EU) membership on 02 March 2022 and 03 March 2022 respectively, but later both the countries said that their membership plans had been put on hold. Clearly the effects of the death and destruction in Ukraine are beginning to sink in the leadership of Georgia and Moldova. Mehmet Murat IIdan's quote "The more money you spend on guns, the less money you spend on people! More weapons, less happiness; more guns, more misery!" should serve as a guideline to Georgia and Moldova so that they are off the Russian radar.

About the Writer - Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd) The writer is an Indian Army Veteran from the Corps of Engineers and is a prolific writer and a public speaker. He tweets at @JassiSodhi24. The views expressed are personal.